O Canada, We Miss You

Pick a data source, any data source, and it will tell you that international tourism from Canada to the U.S. is down. 

Looking at the first half of 2025, Oxford Economics reported that land crossings are down 28% and air arrivals are down 13% year to date for Canada to the United States. The most recent report from Statistics Canada released at the end of August indicated that in June 2025 specifically, Canadian-resident return trips from the United States were down 28.7% year over year.

Things have been so rough that Buffalo launched a Buffalo Loves Canada campaign which debuted on Canada Day, July 1.  While it seemed to have a promising start based on entries for an online giveaway, reporting from this month indicates that the campaign did not create the summer rebound as hoped.

With all of this tourism information in the news, we wanted to dig deeper – particularly with Broadway ticket buyers who live in Canada. Working with our friends at the Shubert Organization, we sent a survey to International-residing Broadway buyers in their database and then compared the results to see what the similarities and differences were between Canadian and non-Canadian Broadway buyers. First, the concerning stuff:

• Intent to return: 12% of Canadian respondents say they do not plan to ever visit the U.S. again vs. 1% of non-Canadian internationals.
• Postponement: Among Canadians planning their next U.S. trip for 2026 or later, 51% originally aimed for a 2025 trip but have postponed (vs. 18% of non-Canadians).
  • Reasons to delay: 95% of Canadian postponers selected “the political climate/policies in the U.S.” as a factor. That percentage drops to 65% for International non-Canadians.
• Unsure of being welcome: Only 28% of Canadians think they will be welcome as visitors to the U.S. on their next trip, and 49% said they think they will be “somewhat” welcome. 
  • Feelings of welcomeness improve for International non-Canadians and those percentages are 53% and 39% respectively.

And some specific notes for those of us marketing live experiences in NYC:

• NYC is more welcoming: When asked about being welcome in NYC, the numbers are much better than what we see for the U.S. in general…while 28% of Canadians said yes, they think they will feel welcome in the U.S., 68% think they will feel welcome in NYC specifically.
• Safety concerns persist: For those planning to come to NYC on their next trip, 37% say they think they will feel “very safe” walking around and 58% said “somewhat safe”. These percentages are the same for Canadians and International non-Canadians. However, the “very safe” percentage for riding the subway is just 18% for Canadians and 22% for non-Canadian internationals.

And finally, a sliver of hope:

• Sentiment does not necessarily impact decision to travel: While there are a lot of things that have caused people to view the U.S. less favorably, the response percentages drop when asked if those same things impact their decision to travel to the U.S.
  • For example, 78% of Canadians said U.S. elections have caused them to view the U.S. less favorable, but only 67% say  U.S. elections have impacted their decision to travel to the U.S.

So is there an end in sight? This optimist says yes, but it will take time, and we likely just have to wait it out. We’ve had unfavorability troughs before based on this Pew Research, but we’ve rebounded. 

I travelled to Montreal for the first time in July and the people could not have been more lovely and welcoming. I hope I have the opportunity to extend the same courtesy to more of our Canadian friends soon. And I am sure my fellow New Yorkers feel the same.